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Mesa, neighboring counties experience population surge

By Mike Saccone - The Daily Sentinel       Sunday, July 22, 2007

Populations of Western Slope cities are exploding, according to recently released U.S. Census Bureau estimates.

Communities throughout Mesa, Garfield, Delta and Montrose counties grew by as much 66 percent from 2000 to 2006, according to the data released in late June.

The growth estimates show Mesa County’s population grew from 116,255 in 2000 to 134,189 in 2006, a growth rate of more than 15.4 percent.

Grand Junction, the data shows, grew from 41,986 in 2000 to 46,898 in 2006, a growth rate of 11.7 percent.

Mesa County’s other communities, such as Fruita, Palisade, De Beque and Collbran, all grew at rates between 6 percent and 8.9 percent during the same time period.

The explosive growth of communities throughout area counties has stressed public services and infrastructure, according to local officials.

Mesa County Administrator Jon Peacock said the county’s rapid growth has had mixed consequences for the county.

“It’s neither good nor bad, but it’s an interesting challenge,” he said.

Peacock said that alongside the county’s ability to attract more retailers, jobs and private services as a result of its booming population, the growth has strained the county’s ability to provide public services, including snow plowing and law enforcement coverage.

“People are becoming a little bit less satisfied with service levels,” Peacock said, adding the county’s traditional “rugged individualism” is dissolving as Mesa County becomes more urban.

“More people obviously means more transactions and more volumes, but the other impact we’re seeing is that traditionally Mesa County has viewed itself as rural,” Peacock said. “Rural communities tend to demand less in terms of service levels or service offered.”

Peacock said, for example, development near Powderhorn has forced the county to look into plowing streets it never had to plow before.

Mesa County is not alone in its growth: An analysis of the Census Bureau data shows nearly every community in Mesa, Garfield, Delta and Montrose counties grew by at least 6 percent from 2000 to 2006.

Garfield County communities grew the fastest, however, with New Castle growing from 1,984 in 2000 to 3,294 in 2006, a growth rate of 66 percent.

Of the county’s growth from 2000 to 2006, Census Bureau statistics show Garfield County derived most of its growth from natural births and immigration.

New Castle Town Administrator David Blanchard said the rapid development of subdivisions that had been approved years back has spiked growth in the community.

Blanchard said the community has seen its largest growth in energy industry workers who commute down valley and service industry workers who commute to Aspen, Carbondale and other mountain communities with high costs of living.

He said those demographics have pushed the area’s roads to their breaking points.

“Our connection to Interstate 70 is the problem,” Blanchard said. “Right now we have a real problem with what amounts to an outdated overpass, outdated interchange in and out of New Castle. That amounts to a real strain.”

Blanchard said the growth is unlikely to abate any time soon. He said in the first half of 2007, the town exceeded its growth projections for the entire year.

Neighboring town Silt grew from 1,740 to 2,408 during the same period, the data shows.

Two other cities in the four-county cluster grew by more than 30 percent: Delta and Montrose.

And based on the latest population forecasts, Archuleta County, with its 25.1 percent growth from 2000 to 2006, ranked the 98th fastest-growing county in the United States.

Across the region, only Nucla shrank, dropping from 734 residents in 2000 to 733 residents in 2006.

Former Gov. Dick Lamm said even if the Western Slope’s growth is evidence of its prosperity, the trend will have long-term, negative effects on the region.

Lamm, who co-directs Institute for Public Policy Studies at the University of Denver, said as the region’s population explodes, it will get more difficult to provide communities with water, energy, food and other limited resources.

“When you look at the numbers, especially on the Western Slope,” Lamm said, “there should be more argument than conversation about how those numbers are going to be sustained given the semi-desert we live in.

“We come from this culture that took this desert and made it into an unbelievable prosperous and productive place, and we assume that the culture that succeeded in the past can logically extend into the future,” Lamm added. “Can it? Well, I believe we cannot.”

Lamm said he hopes Coloradans will wise up to the problems of growth before it gets too late to return Colorado and the nation to more moderate, sustainable levels of growth.

Future residents of Mesa County and its neighbors, however, might be more open to sustainability arguments, according to John Straayer, political science professor at Colorado State University.

According to the Census Bureau’s county-by-county age data, Mesa County saw its largest leap in population between 2000 and 2005 in the 85-and-older crowd, which grew by 35 percent from 2,131 to 2,878.

But even with the spike in the number of seniors, as youths aged 18 to 24 grew from 10,904 in 2000 to 13,478 in 2005, the median age fell countywide from 38 to 36.

The same trend was true across Delta, Montrose and Garfield counties during the same time period.

Straayer said younger populations in these communities are more likely to be permissive when it comes to issues such as marijuana use, gay marriage, global warming, sustainability and accepting diversity.

“The younger generation is, No. 1, more likely to be unaffiliated initially, and it seems to be a littler more liberal on issues like gay rights, women and minorities in office … even on the question of Mormonism,” Straayer said. “I sense that here, too, with my own students, the question of pot, gay rights … that’s just not that big a deal as it is for older ones.”

Straayer said it is a matter of semantics whether to call the shift “liberal or libertarian,” but more youths in the region makes the locales more likely to see some political shifts over time.

Mike Saccone can be reached via e-mail at msaccone@gjds.com.



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