As long as the energy industry keeps “poking holes into the ground” on the natural resource-rich Western Slope, the Grand Junction economy should be in good shape, a noted economist said Tuesday.

“You are the poster child for growth,” said U.S. Bank Chief Economist Tucker Hart Adams in a nod to the strength of the regional economy.

Adams, who made her remarks at a luncheon sponsored by U.S. Bank at Two Rivers Convention Center, said the regional economy isn’t recession-proof but is better positioned than the rest of the nation.

“As long as the drilling continues,” she said.

However, Adams added, the regional economy is going to “follow the nation in many ways,” with the biggest effect stemming from a woozy credit market rocked by bad housing loans that have led to billions of dollars in losses for a number of financial institutions.

She said people are going to find it harder to borrow money as banks have tightened up lending standards in response to the credit-market crisis.

The region’s tourism industry is likely to take a hit as people who visit are probably going to be more tightfisted with their money.

“If the snow is good, they come … but (they) will spend less,” said Adams, noting that as a result of a downtrodden economy, people have less discretionary income.

As for the rest of the state, it will mirror the national picture, except for those remaining areas affected by the energy boom. She reiterated a forecast made in September that called for job growth to about 0.5 percent, or roughly 11,000 positions in 2008.

By comparison, Adams said the state’s employment base expanded by 1.5 percent or 35,000 jobs last year.

She also upped her unemployment rate estimate for 2008, saying it should exceed 5 percent in Colorado. Adams had previously said it would rise to 4.8 percent “as the recession deepens.”

She also said the state’s housing market, battered by a record number of foreclosures in 2007, should be healthier by year’s end.

“I think the worst of the housing is over,” Adams said.

For the rest of the country, she referenced a forecast she made about a year ago in which she said a national recession was looming.

“The good news is it looks like my forecast was very accurate,” Adams said. “The bad news is it looks like my forecast was very accurate.”

She pointed toward a number of factors in support of her claim, such as rising unemployment figures, less consumer spending and a large dose of inflation.

“If this is not a widespread decline in economic activity, I don’t know what is,” she said.